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Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition

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1 Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 07, 2011 1:13 pm

This was a tradition over at RLT, and I would like to keep it alive. Basically the premise is that you will need to guess when the Ice is out of Rice Lake. Typically we use a very scientific method to gauge Ice-Out, and by that I mean we look, and say... yeah its out! Smile

I will be using MODIS to verify when I think the ice is 70% gone more or less. If you have never visited MODIS, its kinda a neat site. When the Ice goes out, Rice Lake will be more darkly visible. Check it out.... [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Anyway, place your bets! Since we have a small membership, I'm sure we can reserve unique dates, but if you are really stuck on a date, well guess it. Unfortunately there are no prizes or anything, just 2011 bragging rights. I will update the first post with guesses as they come in. Closest to the date (even if over) wins! I guess I'll go first.


lochricemonsterlover - March 27th
shimmy_crazy - March 28th

The Mad Trapper - March 31st
longislandcottager - March 31st

Ally - April 1st (no joke!)
Animal - April 4th
skitzo - April 5th ???? Ice Out?
Tbird Man - April 7th ??? Ice Out?
hodgepodge - April 9th
Bewdley Giant Fan - April 11th
River Rat - April 12th
camb - April 13th
diggyj - April 14th
Ed.. - April 15th
freeline - April 16th
ZAPPING - April 18th



Last edited by skitzo on Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:06 pm; edited 18 times in total

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2 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 07, 2011 6:42 pm

Put me in for April 7th. While I hope you're right I think it will be later this year.

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3 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 07, 2011 8:16 pm

april 13

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4 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:28 pm

How about April 15th for me.

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5 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:48 am

april 11 for me but i wouldn't mind losing to an earlier ice out.....the 5th would have been my first choice

terry

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6 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:25 am

April 9 for me, please!

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7 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:37 am

April 12th for me

RR.

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8 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Tue Mar 08, 2011 1:25 pm

I'll guess April 4th

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9 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Wed Mar 09, 2011 9:55 am

I'll go for April 8

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10 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Wed Mar 09, 2011 10:26 am

i'll take april 1

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11 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:33 pm

I'll go Apr 16 ( and boy do I hope I lose )

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12 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:12 pm

Good lord.
Not sure how this ice out will go, but what a mess today.
15 cm of snow Wednesday night that turned to rain Thursday. Most of the fallen snow is gone, and we got a tonne of rain... the roads were like rapids on a river.

Weather says its going to stay on the + side for tuesday, wednesday and thursday. we shall see...

still.. what a mess!

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13 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Sat Mar 12, 2011 12:19 pm

The Mad Trapper wants March 31... and after the past two days and looking at the weather report, I'm thinking I may change mine to March 28 Smile yay! Here's hoping for a really early thaw!!!

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14 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Sat Mar 12, 2011 2:33 pm

I added the mad trappers guess and altered yours.
since there is so much riding on this competetion, and epic prizes, no more changing votes! when you post and I add it above, its locked it. I should have specified... I'll let this one go shimmy Twisted Evil

on another note... look at this. mother nature, are you finally kicking winter out!
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Lets hope so!

Don't forget to change your clocks tonight!

7 DAYS TILL SPRING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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15 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Sat Mar 12, 2011 9:15 pm

April 18. 15cm of ice off of sunset couve

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16 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 14, 2011 12:26 pm

Hehe, thanks Skitzo. I guess I got carried away in all of the excitement of the weather forecact Smile But just as a upadate... my hubby drilled in 3 locations yesterday and there's still 18" of ice compared to only 9" at this time last year, so alas... my date change will likley be my demise in the competition anyway.... just goes to show that you should always stick to your first instinct! lol

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17 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 14, 2011 12:31 pm

I agree that the ice out will be later this year... i think it was around march 24th ish give or take a few days. i think we will be later then that this year, however, i don't think it will go mid april.

i still think guessed 1st or 2nd week of april should hit it. when the ice does go, it goes fast.

So what do you guys do for the next few weeks on the island. stock up big time and wait till you have open water?

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18 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 14, 2011 1:10 pm

we also should get a good shot from MODIS today, to see where the snow cover is, and all the ice. the last clear sat shot was from March 8th, so it will be interesting to compare.

the problem is we keep getting a few cms of snow, then rain, then some warmer temps. we need lots of rain, sunny days and cloudy nights to keep the temps in!

COME ON MELT... and COME ON SPRING!

P.S. - the groundhog LIED!

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19 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:59 am

I'm going with March 27. Hopefully the warm weather will melt this stuff real fast!

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20 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:13 pm

April 14.

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21 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:44 pm

we are up to date with guesses thus far.
2 sunny days in a row, and the thermometer is reading +4 right now, with expected highs of +7 today.

Rain tonight and tomorrow with +6, which should chip away nicely at the ice. then +8 and sunny Thursday and +9 and rain Friday. if the weather holds true, we should make a nice dent in the ice this week!

Take a look at this! [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

I think this would be a cool idea. I doubt I can get something up by this ice out, but I might try next year or something.

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22 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:53 am

Muskrats are breaking through the ice . due to weather changes I think April 10 is better than the 18 as I thought earlier

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23 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:57 am

Looks like we have quite a list going.
I will close this thread on Friday (get your guesses in by then if you haven't yet).
We will then see whos the big winner!

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24 March 20th/2011 OPEN WATER on Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:46 pm

Went up to the shack today for a few hours and all the ice around my place has melted. Lots of open water and that means overnighters and Crappie fishing soon. Here are a couple of pics.

Dirk

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25 Re: Official Ice-Out Contest 2011 Edition on Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:01 pm

yeah i took a look by sunnyvale on friday. seems the mouth of the trent was open and moving..

this week looks not so great for a thaw though.... the open water sealed itself by my place last night... or at least is getting smaller Crying or Very sad

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